NHL Playoffs Statistical Preview

The stats love the Kings.

(Note: From time to time, I’ll take a break from proposing new sports ideas. This is one of those times.)

While the hockey stats revolution is still about a decade or so behind baseball, there are still some pretty telling stats in our toolbox today. My favorites are Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO.

Here’s a description of each from the awesome Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com:

• Fenwick = Shots + Missed Shots
• FF% = Fenwick For% = Fenwick For / (Fenwick For + Fenwick Against)
• Corsi = Shot Attempts = Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots
• CF% = Corsi For% = Corsi For / (Corsi For + Corsi Against)
• PDO = Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage while on the ice

There’s obviously a lot of overlap, but we’ll just ignore that for now. The main takeaway is that possession and shots are extremely important.

I compiled the FF%, CF%, and PDO on all 30 NHL teams from the 2013-14 regular season and standardized them into a z-score. For Fenwick and Corsi, a higher z-score is good. For PDO, a lower z-score is good.

I averaged these figures up in the “Total” column ((FF + CF – PDO) /3) and sorted them by that metric. To compared them to the actual regular season results, I also added the regular season standings points and goal differential.

Team	FF%	FFZ	CF%	CFZ	PDO	PDOZ	Total	Points	Goal Dif
Los Angeles	56.1	1.83	56.8	2.01	1000	0.00	1.28	100	32
New Jersey	53.6	1.07	54.4	1.29	985	-1.33	1.23	88	-11
Chicago	55.4	1.62	55.5	1.62	999	-0.09	1.11	107	47
San Jose	54.6	1.38	53.7	1.09	998	-0.18	0.88	111	49
Florida	50.8	0.23	51	0.28	980	-1.77	0.76	66	-72
NY Rangers	52.6	0.77	52.4	0.70	997	-0.27	0.58	96	25
St. Louis	53.7	1.10	53.1	0.91	1007	0.62	0.46	111	57
Vancouver	51.6	0.47	51.3	0.37	995	-0.44	0.43	83	-27
Ottawa	51	0.29	52.4	0.70	997	-0.27	0.42	88	-29
NY Islanders	49.1	-0.28	49.4	-0.19	984	-1.42	0.32	79	-42
Detroit	51.5	0.44	51.5	0.43	1000	0.00	0.29	93	-8
Winnipeg	50.5	0.14	50.1	0.02	994	-0.53	0.23	84	-10
Carolina	49.6	-0.13	50.3	0.08	994	-0.53	0.16	83	-23
Nashville	49.4	-0.19	48.5	-0.46	989	-0.97	0.11	88	-26
Dallas	50.9	0.26	50.5	0.14	1002	0.18	0.07	91	7
Tampa Bay	51.3	0.38	51	0.28	1007	0.62	0.02	101	25
Boston	53.4	1.01	53.9	1.15	1025	2.21	-0.02	117	84
Phoenix	50	-0.01	50.5	0.14	1003	0.27	-0.05	89	-15
Philadelphia	49.2	-0.25	50	-0.01	1003	0.27	-0.18	94	1
Pittsburgh	49.2	-0.25	48.7	-0.40	1001	0.09	-0.24	109	42
Calgary	47.7	-0.70	46.3	-1.11	988	-1.06	-0.25	77	-32
Columbus	49.8	-0.07	49.9	-0.04	1008	0.71	-0.27	93	15
Minnesota	48.8	-0.37	48.6	-0.43	1010	0.89	-0.56	98	1
Washington	47.1	-0.88	47.7	-0.69	1002	0.18	-0.58	90	-5
Montreal	47.9	-0.64	46.7	-0.99	1005	0.44	-0.69	100	11
Anaheim	50.1	0.02	49.8	-0.07	1024	2.13	-0.72	116	57
Edmonton	44.1	-1.78	44.3	-1.70	990	-0.89	-0.87	67	-67
Buffalo	42.8	-2.17	43	-2.09	982	-1.59	-0.89	52	-91
Colorado	46.7	-1.00	47	-0.90	1018	1.59	-1.17	112	30
Toronto	42.3	-2.32	42.9	-2.12	1013	1.15	-1.86	84	-25

 
It’s not hard to see why Toronto and their notoriously anti-analytics front office fell off the rails, but how did Colorado manage to achieve a No. 1 seed in the West? (Answer: Unsustainably over-achieving goaltending from Semyon Varlamov.)

For the sake of comparing these stats to regular season results, here’s how Total looks plotted against goal differential:

(Sorry some of those are cut off. The far left is Toronto, and the far right are Los Angeles and New Jersey.)

The correlation is only .1845, which suggests that these metrics should probably only be used as a guideline in telling us what teams may have over- and under-achieved this season relative to their actual performance.

First round match-ups

Ok, so how do these teams’ stats compare for the first round match-ups?

Home Ice	Total	Road Ice	Total	Difference
Colorado	-1.171	Minnesota	-0.512	-0.66
St. Louis	0.106	Chicago	0.905	-0.80
Anaheim	-0.575	Dallas	0.289	-0.86
San Jose	0.926	Los Angeles	1.233	-0.31
Boston	0.101	Detroit	0.356	-0.25
Tampa Bay	0.018	Montreal	-0.377	0.40
Pittsburgh	-0.200	Columbus	-0.483	0.28
NY Rangers	0.753	Philadelphia	-0.244	1.00

 
In the West, every matchup’s lower seed has a higher total, which suggests that upsets could be rampant. Most notably, Minnesota and Dallas have a considerable edge over the two No. 1 seeds. And whoever emerges from the San Jose vs. Los Angeles showdown (two of the three highest Totals in the playoffs) should be a serious contender to make the Stanley Cup Finals.

In the East, it’s a bit more chalk, but again, a No. 1 seed (Boston) has a lower total than its opponent (Detroit).

Does this mean all the No. 1 seeds are going down? No, probably not. But it does indicate they’re very susceptible to being upset—not just in the first round, but in every round of the playoffs.

Vegas odds

Finally, let’s take a look at how these Total figures for each team compare to Vegas. My (extremely unscientific and non-statistically sound) formula for a stat I call “BetFigure” is:

BetFigure = [(Total Differential + 2.5) * 0.2] / Vegas Win Percentage

From my (again, unscientific) experience, anything over 1.50 is generally a profitable bet.

Team	Line	Win Pct	Total	Opponent	Total	Total Diff	BetFigure
Detroit	235	29.9%	0.356	Boston	0.101	0.25	1.85
Dallas	165	37.7%	0.289	Anaheim	-0.575	0.86	1.78
Columbus	210	32.3%	-0.483	Pittsburgh	-0.200	-0.28	1.37
Minnesota	115	46.5%	-0.512	Colorado	-1.171	0.66	1.36
Chicago	-105	51.2%	0.905	St. Louis	0.106	0.80	1.29
Los Angeles	125	44.4%	1.233	San Jose	0.926	0.31	1.26
NY Rangers	-150	60.0%	0.753	Philadelphia	-0.244	1.00	1.17
Tampa Bay	-117	53.9%	0.018	Montreal	-0.377	0.40	1.07
Montreal	-103	50.7%	-0.377	Tampa Bay	0.018	-0.40	0.83
Pittsburgh	-250	71.4%	-0.200	Columbus	-0.483	0.28	0.78
San Jose	-145	59.2%	0.926	Los Angeles	1.233	-0.31	0.74
Philadelphia	130	43.5%	-0.244	NY Rangers	0.753	-1.00	0.69
Colorado	-135	57.4%	-1.171	Minnesota	-0.512	-0.66	0.64
St. Louis	-115	53.5%	0.106	Chicago	0.905	-0.80	0.64
Boston	-280	73.7%	0.101	Detroit	0.356	-0.25	0.61
Anaheim	-190	65.5%	-0.575	Dallas	0.289	-0.86	0.50

 
So there you have it, Detroit and Dallas. Take it to the bank. Guaranteed*

*Maybe